Nonlinear feedback and long-range memory in GARCH model

Recently journal Physica A accepted our, A. Kononovicius and J. Ruseckas, manuscript titled "Nonlinear GARCH model and 1/f noise" [1]. In this article we shown that simple memory-less model with nonlinear term may exhibit interesting stylized fact - long-range memory. Our manuscript is even more interesting due to the fact that considered model (and its various modifications) is somewhat widely used by the practitioners.

In previous blog posts we have demonstrated that one can reproduce power law distributions using GARCH(1,1) model and also that nonlinear GARCH(1,1) model enables reproduction of long-range memory. In this blog post we once again touch the topic of long-range memory, but now we consider nonlinear feedback.

Long-range memory in nonlinear GARCH model

Recently journal Physica A accepted our, A. Kononovicius and J. Ruseckas, manuscript titled "Nonlinear GARCH model and 1/f noise" [1]. In this article we shown that simple memory-less model with nonlinear term may exhibit interesting stylized fact - long-range memory. Our manuscript is even more interesting due to the fact that considered model (and its various modifications) is somewhat widely used by the practitioners.

Last time we have shown that GARCH(1,1) modeli is able to produce power law distributions, but not a long-range memory. In this text we introduce nonlinearity into GARCH(1,1) model and demonstrate that the modified model exhibits long-range memory.

Power-law distribution in linear GARCH model

Recently journal Physica A accepted our, A. Kononovicius and J. Ruseckas, manuscript titled "Nonlinear GARCH model and 1/f noise" [1]. In this article we shown that simple memory-less model with nonlinear term may exhibit interesting stylized fact - long-range memory. Our manuscript is even more interesting due to the fact that considered model (and its various modifications) is somewhat widely used by the practitioners.

In the next couple of blog posts we will present the main results of the manuscript. We will start with a simple demonstration that GARCH(1,1) model may exhibit power law distributions

V. Gontis: "Econophysics = Physics of Risk"

Vygintas Gontis, currently working in Boston, was invited to give a talk to a students of Boston Lithuanian School. Though slides are based on the previous talk, but the narrative is completely new and aimed at younger viewer (though once again it was given in Lithuanian).

C. Hommes: How Expectations Interact to Create Bubbles

Prof. Cars Hommes from University of Amsterdam is mathematician by training (he obtained his Bsc and Msc degrees as mathematician). Primarily he was interested in chaotic dynamics and strange attractors. But later he got interested in economics - he received economical PhD. Now prof. Cars Hommes is one of the most well known economists who setup lab experiments - he studies general features of irrational and heterogeneous economical behavior in safe environment.

We invite you to listen to his interview given to the Institute for New Economic Thinking (you may find INET on YouTube by clicking this link).